The Central Bank of Argentina has recently announced another reduction in the interest rate, which is now at 50% annually. This decision was made to lower the cost of living, which is expected to drop to 5% in May. However, some believe that the rate cut is also aimed at “liquefying” the Central Bank’s debt as part of a strategy to lift the exchange rate that currently limits the purchase of dollars.
Despite inflation, this reduction in interest rates has not had a significant impact on free dollars due to various factors such as validity of stocks and different settlement rates for exporters. As a result, fixed term deposits now have interest rates ranging from 37-40% annually. The Central Bank’s decision to lower interest rates is linked to reducing debt payments on its monetary liabilities, which amount to approximately $34 billion. By “liquefying” savers in pesos, the bank aims to offset its liabilities and limit monetary emission.
This move has left savers in a difficult position as they are losing money in real terms due to low interest rates and limited deposit options. On an international level, Argentine officials are currently negotiating with China to pay off a $5 billion debt by June’s end. This debt is part of a larger swap arrangement secured by former officials.
Paying off this debt would require a significant portion of the reserves held by the Central Bank, which has already paid off debts with the IMF.
The outlook for both interest rates and international debts remains uncertain as Argentina continues to face economic instability. The Central Bank’s strategy to protect the exchange rate and manage debt payments is being closely monitored by analysts and investors.
The coming months will likely bring more negotiations and challenges for the government as they navigate these complex economic issues.
