North Korea’s relationship with Russia has evolved significantly due to the ongoing conflict in Ukraine. The country has become an important partner for Russia, particularly through arms deliveries, and China has reluctantly accepted this shift. However, recent developments have seen China take a more offensive stance in its North Korea policy.
In mid-April, Chairman of the National People’s Congress Zhao Leji visited Pyongyang, although details of the discussions were not made public. Experts speculate that the visit may have been related to preparations for a summit between North Korea’s Kim Jong Un and China’s Xi Jinping. China is reportedly concerned about the growing closeness between North Korea and Russia, especially as North Korea has been supplying weapons for Russia’s war against Ukraine. This partnership has led to fears in China of losing influence over North Korea.
North Korea’s status as a self-proclaimed nuclear power and their declaration of South Korea as their main enemy adds to the complexity of the situation. Kim Jong Un’s ability to trigger crises or wars is heightened by his alliances with China and Russia. The dynamics of this alliance triangle are being reshaped by the Ukraine war, creating uncertainty about North Korea’s next moves.
Russia’s role as an enabler for North Korea’s provocations is significant. The war in Ukraine has strengthened North Korea’s position, as Russia provides support in the form of food, energy supplies, and technical assistance. Despite concerns about North Korea’s nuclear program, Russia’s disregard for UN sanctions against North Korea has allowed for greater cooperation between the two countries.
China’s relationship with North Korea is more nuanced, as Beijing views North Korea as a strategic buffer against US troops in South Korea. China provides support to North Korea with reservations, as they balance concerns about international criticism with their own interests. The evolving dynamics between North Korea, China, and Russia have the potential to shape the future actions of North Korea’s leadership.
Overall, it remains unclear whether North Korea will become more aggressive or seek peace in response to these shifting geopolitical landscape influenced by the Ukraine war and alliances with China and Russia
