Thanks to new research, it is now possible to predict heatwaves in the winter in Europe. The study points to a cold patch of meltwater in the North Atlantic as a key factor. The North Sea ice in the polar region is shrinking due to climate change, leading to predictions of ice-free days in late summer and autumn much earlier than previously thought. This melting phenomenon is also affecting Europe’s weather, with hot summers being linked to the presence of the cold patch.
Researchers have found that the cold patch is created by low-salt meltwater from Greenland and sea ice sitting on top of denser, saltier water, creating a barrier that prevents heat from rising from deeper waters. The patch is leading to increased storms in the North Atlantic, impacting weather patterns in Europe. Strong westerly winds are pushing the Gulf Stream further north, affecting the jet stream and creating zones of hot and dry air in Europe.
This research opens up the possibility of predicting hot summers in Europe based on winter conditions. It is a new development as Arctic melting was previously associated with cooling effects on Europe’s climate. The slowing down of the North Atlantic circulation due to meltwater could lead to cooling effects in Europe as warm water from the south fails to reach the region as efficiently. This new understanding of the impact of Arctic melting on European weather patterns could help in predicting future climate trends.
