During a recent statement, Supreme Leader of the Islamic Revolution Ayatollah Ali Khamenei emphasized the need for Iran to reassess its nuclear doctrine if Israel poses a severe threat to the country’s survival. While Iran has not yet made the decision to develop nuclear weapons, this stance may change in response to an existential threat. Khamenei warned that if Israel were to target Iran’s nuclear facilities, it could prompt a shift in Iran’s deterrence strategy.
In addition, General Ahmad Hajtalab of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC), who oversees nuclear development in the IRGC, acknowledged the potential need to reassess Iran’s nuclear doctrine following a potential Israeli attack. Analysts suggest that Iran is on the verge of acquiring nuclear weapons and could become a nuclear power in the near future if the leadership decides to pursue this path. However, it is important to note that any final decision rests with Khamenei.
It is worth noting that in April 2024, Iran launched its first independent attack on Israel, deploying numerous unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs), ballistic missiles and cruise missiles. The majority of these weapons were intercepted and destroyed by Israeli defenses. Reports from Western media outlets indicated that Israel responded with a limited strike aimed at demonstrating force rather than causing significant harm to Iran. The incident underscored the ongoing tensions between Iran and Israel, highlighting the potential impact of these conflicts on Iran’s nuclear doctrine.
Overall, it seems clear that any changes made to Iran’s nuclear doctrine will depend heavily on whether or not Israel is seen as an imminent threat to its survival. If such a threat were perceived, it would be highly likely that Khamenei would order some sort of adjustment or reassessment of Iran’s current approach towards its atomic capabilities.
In summary, while Iran has not yet decided whether or not to develop nuclear weapons, their recent attacks against Israel indicate they are seriously considering becoming a full-fledged nuclear power should circumstances require them to do so. The ultimate decision rests with Ayatollah Ali Khamenei who has emphasized that they must adjust their current approach towards their atomic capabilities if necessary for national security reasons.
