Record Turnout on First Day of France’s Legislative Elections: What it Means for the Future of French Politics

France witnessed a record turnout on the first day of voting for its legislative elections, with 59.4% of eligible voters casting their ballots by 5 pm. This was a 20% increase compared to the same time period in 2022 and the highest since the 1986 legislative elections. By the end of the first round at 8 pm, the estimated turnout was 69.5%, marking a significant increase in voter participation.

In addition to France, there was an increase in voter turnout abroad, where participation is typically lower than in mainland France. Early results showed leading candidates in Guadeloupe, Guyana, and Polynesia. Notable figures such as President Emmanuel Macron and far-right leader Marine Le Pen cast their votes in various regions across the country.

According to most polls, it appears that Marine Le Pen’s Rassemblement National party is on track to win a majority in the 577-member National Assembly. As a result, President Macron has scheduled a government meeting for Monday to discuss strategy ahead of the second round of voting on July 7th. The decision by Macron to call early elections following RN’s victory in the European Parliament elections has caused uncertainty in France’s economy and fueled political tension.

Throughout this election campaign, two distinct trends have emerged: hope among left-wing supporters and Rassemblement National followers that change was possible and fear fueled by hate speech and intolerance from both far-right parties and left-wing coalition members like France Insoumise party. Despite Macron’s efforts to highlight the critical choice facing voters, indications suggest that he may have underestimated support for both extremes while overestimating support for centrist parties like his own La République En Marche! (LREM).

As we approach election day, support for Macron’s centrist camp has declined while backing for far-right surged significantly. The possibility of an Rassemblement National majority raises concerns about a tense political scenario and potential cohabitation arrangement with Macron or even coalition between different right-wing parties who share similar ideologies like LREM or Les Républicains (LR). The outcome of this second round will determine whether French politics will continue down its current path or take a new direction with implications for its economy and social cohesion.