In an unexpected turn of events, the populist right in France has achieved an unprecedented success as approximately 34% of voters supported the bloc led by Marine Le Pen’s “National Union” party. This marks a significant defeat for incumbent President Emmanuel Macron, who called for snap elections three weeks ago to consolidate his political power. The results have shown that the support rates in the public will translate into seats in the National Assembly, which has 577 seats.
The “National Union” party will face a second and final round and will need at least 289 seats to secure an absolute majority in parliament and form a government. Current estimates show that they may fall short of this majority, with the left bloc expected to win between 180 and 200 seats. As each electoral district’s results become known, candidates who qualified for the second round will compete. Candidates who received more than 12.5% of the votes in the first round qualify for the second round.
The National Union party demonstrated broad support throughout France, showing that their success was not limited to just a protest vote against previous government policies or EU elections. The voting rate in these elections exceeded previous rates, with close to 70% turnout compared to less than 48% two years ago. The populist right in France looks poised to take power, while Macron’s political bet seems to have backfired.
As a result of this election outcome, it is crucial to monitor how support rates translate into actual seats in parliament before making any predictions about future political developments in France.
