In recent months, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics’ Quarterly Census of Employment and Wages (QCEW) program released its initial estimates for county employment in 2023. The program relies on employer reporting to state unemployment insurance agencies to calculate employment, establishments and wages paid by industry, state and county. This data is frequently used to measure the economic performance of Montgomery County and compare it with other jurisdictions in the region.
The author plans to simplify the analysis of this data by asking three key questions: What was our performance last year? How do we compare with the pre-pandemic era? What are the long-term trends? These questions will be applied to four specific data series measured by the QCEW program: total employment, private employment, establishments, and wages paid.
It’s important to note that the data sourced from employers only applies to their payrolls and does not take into account non-employment income or non-payroll work such as self-employment. This is a significant omission since Montgomery County is a leader in the D.C. region in proprietors and proprietor income. Data on these subjects is released by the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis with a lag, and will be revisited in future articles.
Additionally, it’s worth mentioning that the preliminary estimates provided by the QCEW program are subject to revision. While revisions have historically been minor and have not reversed long-term trends, the author regularly incorporates revised numbers into their analysis.
In Part Two of this series, we will further explore Montgomery County’s economic performance compared to its neighbors, including one jurisdiction that has experienced a notable economic downturn.
Overall, this article aims to delve deeper into the economic data provided by the QCEW program to assess Montgomery County’s economic performance while taking into consideration
