April 14, 2024 1:40 pm
Predicting Solar Corona Before Eclipse Using NASA Data

Researchers at Predictive Science have developed a groundbreaking model that uses real-time measurements of the Sun’s changing magnetic field to predict solar eruptions. The automated process converts raw data from the Solar Dynamics Observatory (SDO) into a dynamic representation of how magnetic flux and energy are injected into the corona over time. This enables the corona to evolve and ultimately lead to solar eruptions.

Prior to this innovation, the model relied on a static snapshot of the surface magnetic field, which was not ideal for keeping up with the Sun’s ever-changing activity. In earlier iterations of the model, researchers had to manually analyze extreme ultraviolet activity to determine which areas of the Sun needed to be energized. By continuously updating the magnetic field, the team hopes to improve the accuracy of their predictions.

The team developed a software pipeline that identifies areas of the Sun that should be energized and fine-tunes the amount of energy added to those areas. This approach allows for a more dynamic representation of the Sun’s activity, which is crucial during periods of heightened solar activity like the one currently being experienced.

The researchers at Predictive Science are optimistic about their model’s ability to accurately predict solar eruptions in near real-time. They believe that this year’s model will provide valuable insights into solar activity, enabling them to better prepare for potential space weather events and other hazards posed by our closest star.

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