Croatia is just three points away from placing 13th out of a possible 15 major competitions since independence. If Wales draws with Turkey, they will secure a spot in the Euros, and if Turkey wins, they will qualify. However, this match is not only important for placement but also for the draw of the final tournament. This could determine Zlatko Dalić’s team’s path to a great result.
There are still three unknowns remaining before the draw for additional qualifications on Thursday regarding direct travelers to Germany. The holders are the superpowers, including Germany, Portugal, France, Spain, and Belgium along with England. If the qualifications were to end today, Croatia would be in the third strong group which includes Scotland and Slovakia as well as possibly the Netherlands and Serbia.
However, these selections would not be able to play against Croatia or Wales. Hungary and Austria are safe in the second group while Turkey, Denmark, Albania and Romania are also present. Croatia will replace Turkey if they beat Armenia while Turkey beats Wales. At first glance, it seems that a place in the third drum could be more favorable for Croatia than in the second round.
The weakest strong group will consist of three national teams that are placed through play-offs and which will not be known at the time of the draw (matches are at the end of March). As well as three runners-up with weak performance so far Slovenia is considered one of them along with Czech Republic and Switzerland. With a win over Armenia, Croatia will surely stay in their current group while with a draw or loss if they go to Euros (which means Wales did not win), they risk ending up in fourth round and have most difficult draw possible.
On another hand Serbia will fall into last round if two out of Moldova vs Czech Republic , Kazakhstan vs Slovenia or Armenia vs Croatia matches happen; this way indirectly pushing their neighbors towards more difficult draw