As the Index of Leading Economic Indicators fell in October, it has sparked concerns about a possible recession on the horizon. However, despite this setback, consumer spending has remained much stronger than expected and may be preventing us from entering into a recession.
According to Justyna Zabinska-La Monica at The Conference Board, one of the reasons we are not currently in a recession is because consumer spending has remained much stronger than anticipated. While Zabinska-La Monica still predicts a recession early next year, she expects it to be short-lived as there hasn’t been any significant decline in manufacturing or the housing market.
U.S economist Matthew Martin at Oxford Economics no longer predicts a recession for this month. Instead, he believes that unemployment will increase and labor conditions will begin to soften but is now more likely to result in a soft landing. He added that he is open to updating his forecasts if economic data continues to surprise him.
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